World Bank raises forecast for UAE's real GDP growth to 3.9% in 2024; 4.1% in 2025

The World Bank has raised its forecast for the UAE's real GDP growth to 3.9% in 2024, compared to its previous forecast in January of 3.7%.

In an economic update published today on the latest economic developments in the Middle East and North Africa region, the World Bank said it had raised its forecast for the UAE's economic growth to 4.1% in 2025 from its previous forecast of 3.8%.

The report also indicated that the UAE's current account surplus is estimated to rise to 8.4% in 2024 and 8.3% in 2025, and that the country will achieve a surplus of 5.1% in its fiscal balance by the end of this year and 4.8% next year.

For MENA, the World Bank said that the region is forecasted to grow 2.7 percent in 2024, which represents a return to the low growth in the decade before the global pandemic. For 2025, the report said that the MENA region is expected to grow at 4.2 percent. In the GCC economies, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, growth will improve to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 4.7 percent in 2025. The pickup in growth is mainly driven by higher oil output due to the phasing out of oil production cuts and robust growth in the non-oil sector linked to diversification efforts and reforms.

MENA's GDP per capita is expected to grow a modest 1.3 percent in 2024, according to the bank, which is an improvement from the 0.5 percent rate in 2023. This increase is driven almost entirely by GCC economies, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, whose GDP per capita growth in 2024 is projected to be 1.0 percent, a significant improvement from the 0.9 percent decline in GDP per capita in 2023.